"The recession is likely over."
These are the words of Fed Chairmen Ben Bernanke, however, his use of elusive words like "likely" worries me and bit. Maybe I'll tell the credit card that I will most likely pay them this month depending on the growth of our economy that has most likely emerged from recession. I'll ask them to hold the finance charges and late fees until the third quarter GDP numbers are finalized.
Bernanke also said that interests rates will stay "exceptionally low" for an "extended period". Well, the stack of unpaid bills on my kitchen counter is getting "exceptionally" high and I'm a little worried about spending an "extended period" in debtors prison.
This declaration of independence from the worst recession in 80 years comes at a time when the majority of the federal stimulus money is getting dolled out in the country's 2010 fiscal year which starts this month. So by this time next year, we'll be rolling in jobs and money. Well, in the spirit of nebulous discussion, I will go on record and say, perhaps.
I will also say that in my observation of Bernanke since he took over for Alan Greenspan in 2006, he has been "exceptionally" careful with what he says publicly. It seems like the whole World hangs on his every syllable, so I doubt that he would make statements like this if they were not "relatively" close to being accurate.
So the US is likely out of the recession however unemployment is still rising and construction billing continues to decline. The problem, is that construction, of course, shows lagging response to the growth of the economy, so we may have to wait until Bernanke removes the tricky adjectives (or are they adverbs?) from his prepared statements before we're seeing real-life improvement before our eyes.
Despite Mr. Bernanke's aversion to commitment, I think we can all feel very optimistic about America's resilience and our ability to emerge, alive and kicking from a horrific economic state. However, this is only likely to be the case.
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It is clear to see that the upper levels of the economy have an outlook of ambiguity and short-sightedness. The losses that were posted at the end of 2008 by the upper class have already become but a long ago memory. Most have probably recouped what most of us would consider annual salaries by "diversifying" even further. However, it would be in all of our best interest if the Fed chairman and all those associated with our economy will take a page out of the project management manual and note all of the "Lessons Learned" from this entire debacle of the economy. It has been a long time coming, and was greatly evidenced during the bankruptcies of such companies like Enron and WorldCom. Yet even then, we chose to close our eyes, plug our ears, and progressively listen to the music playing loudly over our iPods to avoid acknowledging the train wreck quickly approaching. To truly believe we are out of the woods only a year afterward is beyond naive. It is pure "ballsy" to think that we have had such a quick turnaround when purchasing by the regular consumer is still somewhat stagnant. Not to mention how our future generations will reap what has been sown over the last few years. It is hoped and, dare to say, prayed for that we do come out of this environment very soon with a lot more insight and wisdom.
ReplyDeleteIf the recession were over how come I can't even get a decent job interview after 5 months of relentless searching, networking, etc. I keep hearing the words OVER-QUALIFIED, COMMISION-ONLY and COMPETITIVE JOB MARKET. B.S.Companies are not hiring. And those "fortunate" enough to land interviews may be accepting a job at much lower salaries out of desperation and settling. Sad sad situation. Period.
ReplyDeleteFreezer,
ReplyDeleteI agree, the severity of this thing could have been prevented if somebody would have said something. Who wants to be a party pooper/whistle blower though?
Raul,
I feel your pain man. It may be worth waiting a few months when companies may be more likely to hire at a higher salary. It's like waiting an hour to leave work and you end of getting home at the same time because you missed the traffic.
I am still baffled by how the economy can recover if unemployment remains the same, which is what Bernanke is predicting (the "jobless recovery").
ReplyDeleteI'm in the same camp as Raul--six months, and no interviews let alone an offer. I've sent my resume to more than fifty firms, and the response from every single one is 'we are not hiring at this time'. The only question is, when firms start hiring again, will I still have a roof over my head?
It is interesting how his true thoughts about the economy comes out. He tried articulating effectively but then says, well we are LIKELY out of the recession. Sure give us confidence doesn't it. I have create a website to have the American people speak out to help bring our economy back to true form. Check it out at www.savetheuseconomy.com and give your ideas
ReplyDelete